I had been made aware of this scenario (and its manifold criticisms) through freinds of mine who thought it might make a good subject for an article. It sounded intriguing, so I did some investigating. Basically, a couple of retired cops and a college professor came to believe that aroiund forty to fifty young men had been systematically murdered, and then their bodies thrown into bodies of water, by roving bands of miscreants, for reasons Either unknown or quite far-fetched. The FBI has taken the position that there is no indication of any such criminal activity, I am not always a fan of the FBI, as they often allow politics to interfere with their operations, but here, I have to say, the G-Men are right on the money.
I saw two of the men on Geraldo at Large. The had prepared a presentation, and the professor pointed out what amounted to their proof that these deaths, or at least some of them, were not accidental.
The professor's argument went something like this: because all of the cases they are looking at are young, fit, college guys who make good grades, it is statistically unlikely that there is no conspiracy, no crime, no string of murders.
He went on to point out that in his sample (i.e., the victims they were investigating) that probability would, if these deaths were accidental, display a cross-section of society; fat people, tall people, you get the idea. And, sitting here in my comfy chair, I had to laugh, because if I had been teaching a class and someone had handed in a paper with that glaring fallacy, I would have given him a big fat "F" ...you see the problem?
It's researcher bias. There are only certain types of young men on these guy's list. Because they have convinced themselves that a certain type of young man is being murdered, they have chosen to include only those who fit their profile. In short, they made the list, and then became limited by its contents.
This was obvious to me, as it must have been obvious to many others. Additionally, it is glaringly obvious that a smiley face is one of the most common graffito out there. There a half-dozen around this town that I know about.
I have some pretty significant doubts about these guys, and their motivations. Most families would like to believe, when they lose someone in an unfortunate way, that it was not due to something preventable on their own parts. Many of these young men had been drinking, and apparently drowned accidentally.
This is giving all of those families false hope, I think. These guys will undoubtedly write a book and make mad bucks off this thing. They have only anecdotal evidence, and their theories are pretty out there.
I think they should take the FBI's word on this one, and admit they have no proof for their claims. Forty plus murders. No forensic proof. While the professor;s at it, he might look at the statistical probability of that. It's pretty damned unlikely.
